Why the Tibet Talks Will Fail

An interesting piece in today's South China Morning Post laying out why the Tibet talks are almost certainly destined to go nowhere. I have mentioned some of the obstacles the talks face in previous posts, particularly the "greater Tibet" issue. This article goes into detail on the other huge impediment to progress, the extent of the autonomy sought by the Dalai Lama's negotiators. The money graf:

The Dalai Lama's decision to give up the demand for Tibetan independence in return for substantial autonomy was intended to make it possible to arrive at an agreement with China. But it is clear that the alternative to independence is still far more radical than anything the Chinese system is either able, or willing, to deliver. The Dalai Lama's minimum demands for autonomy would effectively require the repealing of communist rule in Tibet, and potentially begin the unraveling of mainland China's political structure.

As the story says, Beijing is neither willing nor able to grant concessions of the kind sought by the government in exile, as the Daiai Lama is perfectly well aware. Of course, already under fire for his "Third Way" from more radical, younger Tibetan exiles, the Dalai Lama is also not able to modify his demands. It's always better to talk than not to of course but viewed with a cold eye, it's very hard to see any way the two sides can bridge this yawning gulf.