I spent some time in the region where the earthquake hit worst last year on a story about pandas (the main panda breeding and research center at Wolong is near the epicenter) and fear that the casualty figures are bound to rise quite a bit. It's a region of steep mountains bisected by narrow valleys which suffer from landslides even in the best of times. Many of the roads have been rendered impassable by the trmendous force of the quake and further blocked by rock slides. Right now, time is critical for those buried under collapsed buildings by from what we've seen and heard, it'll be days before help can get through. To make matters worse it has been raining for some time.

And speaking of timing, the government's response has been pretty amazing. Premier Wen Jiabao was on a plane within hours and has been seen constantly on TV, consoling victims (even those still trapped in the rubble in one case), poring over maps and giving orders. Obviously, there a large element of photo op in this but Wen really does appear to care about helping the victims, in contrast to the patently false smiles of sympathy that President Bush wore when he finally arrived in New Orleans after Katrina, for example.

A reader in response to a previous post quite rightly raises the (terrible) prospect of damage to Three Gorges Dam, the monumental hydroelectric project located in western Hubei province,about 660 kilometres east of Chengdu. Thus far, both Xinhua and Reuters reports (out of Chengdu) are saying that there is no evidence as yet of any cracks or otherwise significant damage at the Dam as a result of the quake. But it's still early and this is obviously something we'll watch.

At least two chemical plants in the city of Shifang in Sichuan province have been destroyed in the quake. Hundreds are buried in the rubble at both sites. And ---ominously?--- from at least one of the plants liquid ammonia has been released into the atmosphere because of the destruction, according to Xinhua.net. The overall death toll, according to the Chinese government, is now at least 8600 and headed higher, possibly much higher. Remember that Chengdu, a provincial capital that not many foreigners have even heard of, has a population of 10.5 million. The population of New York, America's largest city, is 8.2 million.

Remember that the Kobe earthquake in 1995 registered 7.2, and killed 5100 people. The urban infrastructure there, I'd wager, even in 1995, was vastly more "earthquake proof" than the buildings, highways etc. in Chengdu. US geological survey, according to its website, saying this was a 7.8 But the epicenter is about 90 to 100 kilometers northwest of Chengdu, whereas the epicenter of the Kobe quake was as I recall only about 20 or 25 kls from the city.

Here are some images, from Sohu.com, of the school that was wrecked by the quake, apparently with anywhere from 900 to 1800 people possibly buried underneath, depending on which report you listen to or read.

http://news.sohu.com/20080512/n256807014.shtml

It's early days yet but it looks as though the damage from the Sichuan earthquake that hit this afternoon isn't too bad. (Later note: numbers are rising as they always do. I guess I was being optimistic, a triumph of hope over experience: I recall the first reports out of Aceh only had a few dozen dead) The size of the quake and the fact that it was felt so far away (the 1970s building that houses our bureau in Beijing swayed giddily for thirty or forty seconds) had led me to fear the worst. It now seems that there was a small (3.9 Richter) quake quake only a few minutes after the Sichuan quake with its epicenter in eastern Beijing. Then a report appeared on the Chinese web and spread rapidly to almost all news portals and bulletin boards. It claimed that the China Earthquake Administration had issued a warning predicting a further quake this evening in Beijing between 10 and 12 of a magnitude between 2 and 6. The report was later denied by the Beijing Seismological Bureau, and was apparently a hoax.

The warning was somewhat credible because China has put much time and energy into earthquake prediction, though with mixed results. In 1975, scientists ordered the evacuation of 1 million people the day before the M7.3 Haicheng earthquake, a decision credited with saving up to 150,000 lives. But the next year, they totally failed to predict the massive, M7.8 Tangshan (which is only 75 miles from Beijing) earthquake, which killed somewhere between 250,000 (official figure) and 650,000 people. And they don't seem to have called the Sichuan quake either.

Of course, there are different kinds of quakes with different precursors, but many seismologists remain deeply skeptical about prediction. I recall traipsing through rice fields after a distinguished seismologist in Sumatra a few years back (he was doing research into the Aceh earthquake and tsunami) and listening to a long harangue that basically put predicting earthquakes on the same level as astrology.

(Here's a link to a Wikipedia entry on earthquake prediction that is fairly balanced).

There are few more egregious examples of corporate lip service to the environment than HSBC's green credit card, advertisements for which have been plastered all over Hong Kong. According to the bank, the card enables its holders to “contribute to protecting the environment.” What this means is that each time the card is used, HSBC will donate a sum equivalent to 0.1% of the transaction value to a program that arranges for the planting of lawns on the rooftops of local schools. These areas of grass are meant to act as insulation, to “increase green space,” and to “improve air quality in the city”—though quite how a few patches of grass are going to improve the toxic miasma that passes for air in Hong Kong is anyone's guess.
I have no doubt that, over time, 0.1% of all transactions conducted with these so-called green cards may buy a reasonable amount of turf. But the size of the donation is not the issue. The issue is consumption itself. One of the main reasons the world is going to hell is because consumers keep buying and disposing of more stuff, and credit cards encourage them to keep doing it. You could lay every square meter of Hong Kong with fresh lawn and it still wouldn't make the faintest dent on the carbon emissions represented by all the goods and services that are going to be bought with the green card. But how very Hong Kong to think that you can shop your way out of a crisis.

A demonstration one week ago in Chengdu drew attention not because of its size but because of what it symbolized. A few hundred residents of the capitol of Sichuan province marched to protest a planned chemical factory. In a country with as many environmental problems as China, a single protest doesn't make a movement. But the Chengdu organizers spoke openly about the inspiration they took from protests last year in Xiamen, which halted the construction of a chemical plant in that eastern Chinese city. Shanghai also had a similar protest in January by residents worried about the extension of a maglev train line through their neighborhood.

In fashion and journalism three makes a trend, so it is tempting to proclaim the beginning of a savvy environmental movement made up of urbanites who can work the media and avoid government strictures. They face a difficult task. Local governments want the economic benefits and tax revenues that come with a big factory. The central government, through the leadership's concept of “scientific development,” is trying to ensure that the damaging sides of development are more equally balanced with environmental protection. At the same time Beijing is aware of how environmental movements in authoritarian states can morph into political reform movements, as with the protests over environmental disasters in the Soviet Union like Lake Baikal.

Given that sort of pressure, the Chengdu organizers took steps like calling their event a “stroll,” to get around the need for official approval for a demonstration. (China Digital Times has a translation of an interesting blog post by Beijing lawyer Liu Xiaoyuan about the significance of the phrasing.) In my conversation with one organizer he never used the words “protest” or “demonstration” and simply referred to “activity,” as if it were a school outing.

The authorities in Chengdu didn't find it so innocuous. On Saturday the police announced that four of the protest organizers had been detained, and another two were being sought. While the jail terms they are expected to serve appear to be relatively lenient--just a matter of days--a message has clearly been sent. Not calling your protest a protest doesn't fool anyone.