Daily commentary about China by TIME correspondents.

"Critical" Unemployment Problem in China: Take This Seriously

The wires report today that China's social security minister admitted unemployment is a critical problem (AFP report here). That this is being acknowledged publicly so soon says to me that the government is aware the situation is much worse already than has been reported, are trying to spin things a bit and lower expectations. That's worrying. He also said the situation would get worse, which seems obvious but, again, coming from where it does, is unusual. Money quote:

 "Currently, the employment situation is critical, and this impact (of the financial crisis) is still unfolding," Yin Weimin, China's social security minister, told reporters in response to a question on recent labour unrest.

 

And also, this: 

Unemployment in China stands at 4 percent, and Zhang Xiaojian, vice minister of social security, said the government expected to hit 4.5 percent by the end of the year.

"But next year the registered (official) unemployment rate will certainly increase," Zhang said.

Zhang added that demand for workers in 84 cities across China in the third quarter of this year had fallen 5.5 percent -- the first third-quarter drop in "many years." 

The official unemployment rate does not include the millions of migrant workers who are not registered in the place they live in.

Migrant workers, you may recall, number somewhere between 100 and 200 million.

 

  • Print
  • Comment
Comments (11)
Post a Comment »
  • 1

    It would be interesting to speculate what would happen if there is labour unrest in China. Except for the Falun Gong (which doesn't boast of too many migrant workers as members), there isn't any other organisation in China through which dissent can be expressed. I doubt if labour unrest will pose a challenge to the communist party since there isn't any visible alternative to it. http://www.winnowed.blogspot.com

  • 2

    Don't be ridiculous. There is nothing the mighty CCP won't be able too fix to ensure that CCP will continue to sit on the throne, forever. Just remember, PLA is under full control of the CCP. Whatever happen can be dealt with quickly, and harmoniously.

  • 3

    While I share first comment's view of a probable occasion for a massive dissent in China, I also agree with the speculation over the supernatural power of the regime...but.
    It comes to my mind that, if there would be just one motivation able to move chinese population to a revolt against their sofar beloved CCP, this is (lack of)profit.
    The average chinese citizen is very sensitive to money.

    PS: I know Chinese history, I have been to China, I have chinese friends etc..etc..

  • 4

    An apparent question is: why the unemployment (~4% now) is a critical problem for China, but US and other developed countries can take even higher value (>6%) without so much headache? I mean this may be true, the question is why China can't bear higher unemployment?
    My answer is simple: the income is low which is the result of low efficiency. This is especially true in the rural area where the most reliable income is the crops and from where most of the migrant workers went out. In the rural area, it is impossible to make a living by only growing crops, due to the limitation of the land one is appointed to farm and the increasing price of everything. (can refer to Austin's post “no so much gold in China's scrap”, in which he mentioned one third of an acre for a family of 6. which is common in lots of places), So almost every family has to let some members to go out for a second job which drove the salary down due to over labor supply. This also squeezed the income of the urban area, but concentrated the wealth into a very small population who are at the top of the pyramid. So in many cases, losing job means the whole family will go hungry immediately. That is why it is a big deal of the unemployment. On the contrary, in the developed countries, most families may live well with only one member working for years. As long as nothing changed in the rural area, this will continue and may worsen. And obviously, this was realized and so came the land reform policy. With the land can be transferred among each other which is forbidden before, one farmer family will be able to plow tens or more acres of land, so it will be enough to make a much better living and no one in this family needs to go out. other families may move to service area completely or move to cities. Rural economy will be flourish and labor supply for the city will drop, drag up the salary level and make losing job a less severe situation for most families. That is the necessary transition and not certainly to be peacefully done in short time. So the unemployment rate may rise in near future, but will drop or not be so critical in the long term.

  • 5

    Mingming2 is all wrong. US cannot handle any unemployment problem at all. Whenever there is unemployment, there are riots on the US street everyday, in every city, everywhere. They burnt police stations, attack government offices, and kills public security officials. China is all peaceful and harmonized. That's why Hu make harmony a high priority in China. No other country ever do it. This is just China is the only harmonious country in the whole while world.

    Don't believe that ? Just see the quiet and peaceful scene in a town in Guangdong: http://tiny.cc/XGbTe and http://tiny.cc/Vcifg and
    http://tiny.cc/kYCq4

    I just wonder what the green netting is all about ? It looks peaceful, and free from any riots.

  • 6

    To winnowed,
    it always looks "interesting" for some people if others got into trouble. So you must know what was the reaction of the world on sep 11, 2001. Is that interesting?
    About FLG, lets do some comparison with CCP: CCP leaders did not flea to oversea to escape the harsh situations when trying to survive at the begining. And many of them fought to death for their believes instead only push the common people into the crossfire. Instead of hiding oversea, many of them actually came back to China during the worst times. So if any orgnization credits itself as standing for the intrests of the public, show people you really mean that, then you sure will get surpport from the public, which is the essential to succeed. if you just know cursing others and nothing else, you only make a joke, no one will seriously look at you.

    To freemindit,
    Do you ever know one revolt that is not because of profit? show me.

  • 7

    Another piece of evidence of CIA infiltrating the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. They insist the US Treasury Bill is still the best option for China to invest its vast amount of money. Only traitors would ever invest China's hard earn cash in the US.

  • 8

    China won another big victory against Democracy American style:
    http://tinyurl.com/64dhmd

  • 9

    Another traitor posing with the Americans:
    http://tinyurl.com/6dth28

Add Your Comment:

You must be logged in to post a comment.
The China Blog Daily E-mail

Get e-mail updates from TIME's The China Blog in your inbox and never miss a day.

Quotes of the Day »

Get & Share
ROBB LEVIN, resident of Fairfax, Virginia, on the $15,000 lawsuit settlement made against Tareq and Michaele Salahi, the White House gate crashers, who are also involved in at least 15 other civil suits

Stay Connected with TIME.com