Alarming Headline of the Day

From Reuters: "China faces wave of unrest in 2009." Last month Simon wrote about whether Beijing could maintain social order as the economic crisis unfolds.  A prominent mainland publication says the answer is most likely "no." The Reuters report states:

China faces surging protests and riots in 2009 as rising unemployment stokes discontent, a state-run magazine said in a blunt warning of the hazards to Communist Party control from a sharp economic downturn.

The unusually stark report in this week's Outlook (Liaowang) Magazine, issued by the official Xinhua news agency, said faltering growth could spark anger among millions of migrant workers and university graduates left jobless.

"Without doubt, now we're entering a peak period for mass incidents," a senior Xinhua reporter, Huang Huo, told the magazine, using the official euphemism for riots and protests.

"In 2009, Chinese society may face even more conflicts and clashes that will test even more the governing abilities of all levels of the Party and government."

The recent anniversary celebrations of 30 years of reform and opening are a reminder that China's social contract relies heavily on citizens expecting a better life tomorrow than they have today. Many poor folks still get squeezed by corruption and unequal economic opportunity, but hundreds of millions of Chinese can say they are gradually becoming better off. What happens if they can't say that anymore? The discontent won't be limited to an impoverished minority.